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Transmission dynamics and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing, China: a descriptive and modelling study

Xiaoming Cui, Lin Zhao, Yuhao Zhou, Xin Lin, Runze Ye, Ke Ma, Jia-Fu Jiang, Baogui Jiang, Zhang Xiong, HongHao Shi, Jingyuan Wang, Na Jia, Wuchun Cao

BMJ open, vol. 11, no. 9, p. e047227, 2021Download


To evaluate epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing and to assess the effects of three non-pharmaceutical interventions, we design a descriptive and modelling study based on surveillance data of COVID-19 in Beijing. To conduct spatiotemporal analyses of the outbreak, we collected individual records on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 11 June 2020 to 5 July 2020 in Beijing, and visitor flow and products transportation data of Xinfadi Wholesale Market. We also built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model to investigate the effect of interventions deployed in Beijing. We found that the staff working in the market (52.2%) and the people around 10 km to this epicentre (72.5%) were most affected, and the population mobility entering-exiting Xinfadi Wholesale Market significantly contributed to the spread of COVID-19 (p=0.021), but goods flow of the market had little impact on the virus spread (p=0.184). The prompt identification of Xinfadi Wholesale Market as the infection source could have avoided a total of 25 708 (95% CI 13 657 to 40 625) cases if unnoticed transmission lasted for a month. Based on the model, we found that active screening on targeted population by nucleic acid testing alone had the most significant effect.

Transmission dynamics and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing, China: a descriptive and modelling study
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@article{cui2021transmission,

  title={Transmission dynamics and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing, China: a descriptive and modelling study},

  author={Cui, Xiaoming and Zhao, Lin and Zhou, Yuhao and Lin, Xin and Ye, Runze and Ma, Ke and Jiang, Jia-Fu and Jiang, Baogui and Xiong, Zhang and Shi, HongHao and others},

  journal={BMJ open},

  volume={11},

  number={9},

  pages={e047227},

  year={2021}

}